Traffic Forecasts

Having established that neither an 1,800 metre nor a 1,500 metre Code 3 instrument runway could be built, the next step was to examine what, if any demand there might be for the development of commercial air services from:

• Retaining the existing runway of 1,036 metres, with its maximum lengths of take-off runway available (TORA) of 916 metres on Runway 21 to the north east and 960 metres on Runway 03 to the south west and the maximum landing distances available (LDA) of between 865 and 871 metres. The current restrictive runway width of 18 metres was assumed unchanged for this purpose.
• A new runway of 1,199 metres, offering a TORA and TODA of 1,199 metres, an LDA of 1,000 metres and a runway width of 30 metres. Although it may eventually prove possible to add short starter strips at one or both ends of the runway, their additional benefits were not taken into account.

Five main areas of demand were analysed:

• Scheduled passenger services
• Charter passenger services
• All-cargo services
• Business aviation and
• General aviation

There are only one or two older aircraft types and perhaps one newer type capable of operating scheduled services from the short existing runway. The runway would also need to be widened and probably strengthened for such use. It was therefore assumed that there would be no significant use of the existing runway for scheduled or charter passenger services. There are a few types of small cargo aircraft that could operate, but the market would be small. Some business jets and most of the larger piston or turboprop engined general aviation aircraft can operate from the existing main runway. General aviation operations could continue unabated, but if the CAA reduced the declared runway take off distance (TODA and TORA) to 799 metres, to be consistent with its width, then most of the larger GA aircraft and the business jets could no longer operate.

Even with a new 1,199 metre runway, there is a restricted number of aircraft types that could operate public transport services. The proposed runway would be the same length as at Sheffield City and similar to London City (London City has 75 metre long and 186 metre long starter strips at each end to increase the effective take-off distances). The 70 seat to 120 seat BAe146/AvroRJ series are four engined jet aircraft that can operate with significant payloads from such short runways. They are renown as one of the quiestest jet aircraft ever made and do not even use reverse thrust (which can be noisy) to assist braking on landing. They are also certified to make steep approaches. The twin-jet Embraer 170 is a new aircraft that can also serve this market with up to 70 seats. However, most aircraft envisaged as suitable for commercial passenger services from such a runway are twin-turboprop models. These range from the older types such as the Fokker F27, J31, SH360 and ATP to the newer D0228, Saab340, ATR42 and Dash 8 series and offer between 20 to 60 seats.

The proximity and range of services available from Gatwick and Southampton has been taken into account. The catchment area is considered to be from Chichester to the west, Midhurst to the north and Hastings to the east, but the majority of potential passengers will start or end their journeys in Worthing, Adur, Hove, Brighton and Eastbourne.

The Civil Aviation Authority undertakes regular comprehensive surveys of air passengers and this includes the surface origin and destination of each surveyed passengers trip as well as their total numbers on each route throughout each year. As a result it is possible to determine how many passengers flew from the Lewes District to Aberdeen in 1999.

Data was obtained for each District in both Hampshire and Sussex for the year 2000. From this it was possible to analyse the pattern of traffic for the catchment area of Southampton Airport and develop an understanding of the travel choices made by the local residents to those destinations served from both Southampton and Heathrow.For example, 68% of people travelling to or from Southampton City chose to fly to Glasgow via Southampton Airport and only 19% via Heathrow.

However, the data also revealed the strong pull of a major airport, where just 6% of journeys to or from the Districts in northeast Hampshire were via Southampton Airport and 76% via Heathrow. This was in spite of the similar travel times to and from each airport, so other factors such as air fares, flight timing and frequency, airline publicity and ticket sales methods play a major part in passenger route selection.

The origin and destination data for the Sussex Districts gives the demand for numerous routes and this was translated into a potential demand for scheduled services from Shoreham Airport by analogy with Southampton and the degree of preference to use the local airport.

The data was also used to calculate the additional demand generated by the availability of a particular route and to establish the most likely routes that could sustain a minimum frequency of at least two flights per weekday. These figures were then grown to reflect the overall forecast growth in domestic and regional demand to the years 2008 and 2018.

The most likely routes were Aberdeen, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Belfast, Newcastle, Leeds/Bradford, Manchester, Dublin, Jersey, Guernsey, Brussels, Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt. Other routes to northern France may also be viable.

Other considerations, such as aircraft size, economic load factors and the potential for varying growth rates were used to establish a cut-off for the thinner routes. The result of the whole analysis was to forecast a demand for commercial air passenger services as follows:

• In 2008
  9 routes, 490,000 annual passengers and 20,600 runway movements
• In 2018
  11 routes, 770,000 annual passengers and 25,000 runway movements

The peak day and peak hour figures derived from these are as follows:

Year	Annual pax	Average day	Peak day	Peak day (14 hrs)	Peak day (14 hrs)
				Average hour	Peak hour
			(1.7:1 ratio)		(1.7:1 ratio)
2008	490,000	1,315	2,235	160	270
2013	615,000	1,645	2,800	200	340
2018	771,000	2,065	3,510	250	425

The highest demand for short-haul aircraft parking usually occurs overnight ahead of an early morning tranch of departures. This is however highly dependent on how many aircraft are based at Shoreham, as opposed to being based elsewhere. In 2008, six to eight passenger aircraft could be on the ground simultaneously. This could rise to nine or ten such aircraft by 2018.

The above figures are relevant to consideration of related issues such as terminal capacity and road traffic demand.

The proposed runway would be too short for the most common types of charter aircraft types. Consequently only a modest number of ad hoc charter flights (e.g. football specials) has been assumed based on the experiences of other similar sized and equipped airports and the scarcity of runway slots for such purposes at other airports in the region.

Cargo services are also considered unlikely (but not impossible) to arise.

The UK demand for general aviation, including leisure, air taxi, pilot training and business aviation is expected to continue to grow at between 2.5% and 3% per year. The cost of obtaining a private pilots Licence and of operating more modern aircraft types are also falling, which increases the demand for leisure flying.

The provision of an 1,199m instrument runway would be particularly attractive to air taxi and business aircraft operators. A journey from the South Coast to other parts of the UK often involves travel via or around London and this can notably extent journey times, be they by car or by train. Air taxi services can be particularly cost effective when the cost of staff time is taken into account and, by comparison, a direct flight may have less environmental impact.

Many particular factors could also affect other airports serving the GA market in the region and some of these could result in a significant increase in demand at Shoreham.

Road Traffic

It has clear that the primary roads in the area already suffer from peak hour congestion. Some of that is generated by the local businesses based on or around the airport and the neighbouring residential areas. Much, of course, is generated elsewhere.

There are a number of specific issues that are currently "in progress" and may have a bearing on the capacity of the road system in the vicinity. These include the issue of A27 improvements around Worthing and the potential effect on the section between Lancing and Shoreham, the ongoing multi-modal public transport study in Brighton and Hove and any road improvements related to the development of Shoreham Harbour.

However, before any planning application was made for any development of the Airport, a traffic impact assessment (TIA) would have to be undertaken and submitted as part of that application. The Highways Agency and WSCC Highways department are also being consulted as part of this process.

What can be stated at this stage is that even Option B, with its attendant commercial flights will not be adding a substantial addition proportion of peak hour traffic. As the previous table shows, the average number of forecast two-way air passengers per hour in the peak day rises from 160 in 2008 to 250 in 2018 and the average number of air passengers in the peak hour of the peak day rises from 270 in 2008 to 425 in 2018.

The peak hour for departing aircraft will be between 07:00 and 08:00. Passengers will need to check in at least 30 minutes before their departure time and so most will time their arrival at the airport to be between 60 minutes and 45 minutes before departure. At that time of day private cars and taxis will convey the majority of passengers and being business orientated, the average number of air passengers per car will be quite low (1.2 to 1.5). A high proportion will be on short-duration trips and so a high proportion will park and fly and some will use public transport. These vehicle trips will occur before the morning rush hour.

Locally based aircraft will depart towards the beginning of this period having arrived the night before. However, for those flights originating from elsewhere, the peak time for arriving passengers will be similar, but towards the end of this period and in the following hour. Inbound early morning passengers will have a high tendency to use taxis or be met by another driver and will be leaving the airport 15 to 30 minutes after their arrival. These trips will tend to coincide with the rush hour period.

Throughout the rest of the day and even in the evening, road journeys by air passengers will generally be off-peak.

Air passengers would therefore add between 200 and 300 car trips in the peak hour, which will only represent a small proportion of the road traffic.

Staff working at the airport and serving these operations will be working shift patterns to match the operating hours and the demand. Many will therefore also start the day before the morning rush hour and generally travel off-peak. There will also be a greater tendency to use public transport if that becomes more readily available as a consequence of the airport’s development. Nevertheless, some people will be employed to work more conventional hours, as will most of those not employed in direct support of airport operations.

A similar number of peak-hour trips may therefore be expected as a consequence of the additional employment on the airport.

We hope that this puts the volumes of additional road traffic into context. Shoreham Airport will never be a major contributor to road traffic in the area and, as stated above, this subject will be the subject of a much more detailed TIA before any planning application is submitted.

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